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Gateway theory:
"A direct cause-and-effect relationship between marijuana use and subsequent use of other drugs is hard to prove. Studies show, however, that of the people who have ever used marijuana, those who started early are more likely to have other problems later on. For example, adults who were early marijuana users were found to be:
- 8 times more likely to have used cocaine;
- 15 times more likely to have used heroin;
- 5 times more likely to develop a need for treatment of abuse or dependence on any drug.
The Journal of the American Medical Association reported a study of more than 300 sets of same-sex twins. The study found that marijuana-using twins were four times more likely than their siblings to use cocaine and crack cocaine, and five times more likely to use hallucinogens such as LSD."
Source:
"What Americans Need to Know About Marijuana," ONDCP, Oct 2003, p.9
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Let's look at the quote above point by point:
"A direct cause-and-effect relationship between marijuana use and subsequent use of other drugs is hard to prove."
Yes, in fact it is impossible to prove, since it isn't true -- as the chart above left depicts.
"Adults who were early marijuana users were found to be:"
- "8 times more likely to have used cocaine"
Yet marijuana is nearly three times more popular among drug users than cocaine, and 70 percent of first time cocaine users are over 18.
- "15 times more likely to have used heroin"
Yet heroin remains extremely unpopular -- even among those disposed to using drugs other than alcohol. Over 28 times as many people have tried marijuana than have tried heroin.
- "5 times more likely to develop a need for treatment of abuse or dependence on any drug"
Yet the vast majority of people who use drugs never need treatment.
and finally,
- "Marijuana-using twins were four times more likely than their
siblings to use cocaine and crack cocaine, and five times more likely to use hallucinogens such as LSD."
Most of us are not twins -- so what does this actually tell us? Perhaps if one is a twin it should mean more frequent urine testing, since twins are so much more likely to be using other drugs.
Bottom Lines:
- Drugs have different effects: so which drugs a person will use is mostly a matter of personal taste
- Use of the more "dangerous" drugs is quite limited -- indeed only 1.6 percent of the population over 12 has ever tried heroin, and less than two-tenths of one percent had used it in the past year.
- Among those who try the more "dangerous" drugs, most do not do so until after they are adults
- The vast majority of intoxicant users start with alcohol -- shall we call it the "gateway" drug? And if we do, should we make it illegal?
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